Japan's interesting new Prime Minister

[Dogen Z]

Aso's stimulus package, which includeed cash handouts and incentives to buy energy-efficient cars and electronics, actually help to expand the economy in the 2nd quarter. Apologies to the PM.

But, consumer spending is expected to fall unless there is some kind of change in the horizon. Perhaps a V-shaped global recovery - unlikely. Or a change in govenment - more likely. So I'm rooting for Hatoyama's party. However, Hatoyama's party is beginning to sound a lot like Aso's party with its pork barrel proposals. Both parties want policies to outspend the other in order to win the election. I wonder if Ozawa is behind this? I think he's a liability, and the party would be much better off without him.

[Elizabeth]

Aso's stimulus package, which includeed cash handouts and incentives to buy energy-efficient cars and electronics, actually help to expand the economy in the 2nd quarter. Apologies to the PM.
But, consumer spending is expected to fall unless there is some kind of change in the horizon. Perhaps a V-shaped global recovery - unlikely. Or a change in govenment - more likely. So I'm rooting for Hatoyama's party. However, Hatoyama's party is beginning to sound a lot like Aso's party with its pork barrel proposals. Both parties want policies to outspend the other in order to win the election. I wonder if Ozawa is behind this? I think he's a liability, and the party would be much better off without him.

The issue is more one of Ozawa's position than the man per se, as behind the scenes party leader negotiating between ruling party and the Cabinet instead of a Cabinet member where the policy process is one of transparency, openness and accountablity. Both he and Koizuimi for all intents and purposes destroyed the LDP system years ago. And Hatoyama is just enough of a weak-minded, easily pressured, smooth-taking leader with fuzzy promises for this arrangement to blow up big.


As for taking on debt, no democratic country in the world is free from pork barrel spending to one extent or another. At least Hatoyama (Ozawa) et al are on the right track with their drive to stimulate domestic consumption by investing in social spending at the expense of wasteful public works, removing highway tolls and tariffs, and most crucially, transitioning from bureaucratic to political rule. The DJP should be able to hook up with smaller parties post-election for political capital to pursue fundamental structural changes : administrative reform, regional decentralization, reconstruction of the social safety net etc.

[Elizabeth]

Sorry for the double post.


If you haven't laughed enough during this campaign....this really is one of the truly funny things ever from a Japanese politican.

http://shisaku.blogspot.com/2009/08/...ells-joke.html



Hands down winner as the single worst justification for a continued mandate of LDP rule.

[Elizabeth]

Aso's stimulus package, which includeed cash handouts and incentives to buy energy-efficient cars and electronics, actually help to expand the economy in the 2nd quarter. Apologies to the PM.
But, consumer spending is expected to fall unless there is some kind of change in the horizon. Perhaps a V-shaped global recovery - unlikely. Or a change in govenment - more likely. So I'm rooting for Hatoyama's party. However, Hatoyama's party is beginning to sound a lot like Aso's party with its pork barrel proposals. Both parties want policies to outspend the other in order to win the election. I wonder if Ozawa is behind this? I think he's a liability, and the party would be much better off without him.

And the rap on Aso was that he lacked directed and intelligent leadership ??


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/99704548-8...44feabdc0.html

http://www.hatoyama.gr.jp/masscomm/090810.html

Read this and tell me Hatoyama is not up to his nuttiness quotiant in saying dumb things to make a bigger fool of himself and voters wonder what they must have been thinking in electing him. (In all fairness, it was said about Koizumi, though, too...what a flaky ignoramus with an unbalanced personality._


A muddled mishmash of cliched pop-anti-globalizationism, mystical brotherhood-ism, and re
actionary conservatism with a few good nuggets but nothing remotely addresses the international environment Japan finds itself with the rigor it needs from a leader. Japanese politics seems to equate vision with vagueness, but Hatoyama's "thinking" is borderline whacky, and that's saying quite a bit.

[Dogen Z]

The DPJ's proposed policies are basically anti-LDP policies, which is what the public wants. And the DPJ has a lock on at least 290 of the 480 seats up for grabs. It will have a clear majority in the important lower house. So while some of the proposed policies may be questionable, arguing about it would be more or less academic.

Rather than argue about it, an astute person would try figure out how he/she can benefit from the coming regime change. My thinking is that we should put our bets on the domestic service sector as well as the health industries. At least for the near term, a DPJ victory will be good for the economy.

[Elizabeth]

The DPJ's proposed policies are basically anti-LDP policies, which is what the public wants. And the DPJ has a lock on at least 290 of the 480 seats up for grabs. It will have a clear majority in the important lower house. So while some of the proposed policies may be questionable, arguing about it would be more or less academic.
Rather than argue about it, an astute person would try figure out how he/she can benefit from the coming regime change. My thinking is that we should put our bets on the domestic service sector as well as the health industries. At least for the near term, a DPJ victory will be good for the economy.

I hope you're right, although programs for sustainable, long term economic and fiscal policy is definately a weak point of the opposition manifesto. Their challange is twofold : 1). diversify and shift the Japanese economy’s base of growth from over-dependence on external demand 2). clean up government finances to meet the Japanese people's demands for their social security.



At least the Hatoyama cabinet selection process seems to be shaping up well. Accomplishing anything is going to require a "divide and rule" strategy of steadily and patiently wearing down the influence of institutions that have dealt the death knell to so much reform in the past. So centering the locus of policymaking process on politicians in the cabinet as a long term goal by placating ministry officials, beauracrats, interest groups, Ozawa and other party leaders may be the key to actually not squandering a mandate in 4 years (ala LDP) and staying in power long enough to drive them out.

[Elizabeth]

Rather than argue about it, an astute person would try figure out how he/she can benefit from the coming regime change. My thinking is that we should put our bets on the domestic service sector as well as the health industries. At least for the near term, a DPJ victory will be good for the economy.

It's interesting. The economy is fueled by domestic consumption for sure although I haven't analyzed a break down by domestic sources v. exports. But the low productivity of the service sector I thought was generally considered a major drag on growth ??

We can say absolutely that the driver of growth isn't going to come from the financial services industry or financial products as a measure of GDP. If Hatoyama has any core principle it is his love of haranguing on anything anti-American, anti-globalization, unrestrained market fundamentalism, financial capitalism...etc. Best not to even get him started.