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The A-bomb in Hiroshima killed about 140,000. We are talking about 8.5x more. If you haven't seen the news yet, hurry up ! It's all here.
Indeed, the death rate in Japan is coming dangerously close to the birth rate, so that 2007 may see the total population of Japan diminish for the first time since population census began.
Fourth sentence:Quote:
Originally Posted by Maciamo
"The population started declining in 2005, as the 1.067 million births were exceeded by the 1.077 million deaths."
Hmm, they should try to make information on the same page coherent :Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Cash
The death rate is still lower than the birth rate, so that contradicts the 4th sentence in question. Which is correct ?Quote:
Originally Posted by Wikipedia
Danged if I know which is correct.
All I know for sure is that everybody in Japan is going to die.
Now the question to this problem is, what can the government do about it?
One of the problem is that most women go for a career (I think this has been happening in most countries to for the past 20-40 years) so if they want to have a baby it means that they have to quit their job, and in Japan you can't just take a break for 1.5 year and then come back ( not as far as I know).
Than another things are, that Japanese woman marry later, because they don't want to give up their independence to raise children in an unhappy environment, or who, if married, decide that having children is a poor investment of their time and energies, and so refuse to bear them.
Most women go for career ? On the contrary I think the are still a minority. Most Japanese women have dead-end jobs while career positions are mostly for men, justly because women are expected to marry and have children. The problem is that Japanese women marry later and later, more and more cannot find a spouse, and even when they do get married they only have 1 or 2 children. The main reason for the decline in birthrate, I think, is that each married woman does not make enough children. Families are already small in Western Europe but single-child families are more common in Japan, and families with 3, 4 or 5 children are less common. Here in Belgium, quite a few upper-middle class people have 4 or 5 children because money isn't an issue anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch Baka
Japan could Force all young Japanese between certain ages to have at least 2 kids or face legal consiquences and what-not.
Oh you mean what can Japan do without actually doing anything? (which would involve infringing on human rights).
Nothing as far as I know, apart from try and convince Japanese to have kids, and we all know that works a treat.
Japans declining birthrate problem is magnified by Japans culture and society.
In the modern world women need to be free to decide their own lives and have equality to their male counter-parts, they make up around half the population of any given country, to sideline or restrict half your population isnt very positive for society.
A short term more rights friendly thing to do would be to make Female workers equal to their male counterparts in the office and work-place, to make work and this "work and the company is your life" attitudfe more flexible, especially for prospective mothers, and to really once and for all get over this uncertainty about foreigners and just accept that a larger number of foreigners may be needed to help keep the labour force afloat.
I dont think any country can support a negetive birth-death ratio forever, and chances are if the government had to, it would force people to pair off, but chances are the decline would be halted before that extreme.
Then again, is a country with minimal livable land that is over-crowded with urban sprawl in such a bad state if it means it gets a bit more room to breath for its population?.
so, the women are to blame?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dutch Baka
Another problem is a "Love child" isn't yet accepted by society.
In Japan, a revelation of a partner's pregnancy actually motivates a man to propose to his woman.
Well, no. Dutch wasn't blaming the women I don't think. To be quite honest, the point about Japanese women having dead-end jobs is true. I believe that has alot to do with Japan's male dominated society. Dutch is right about women who work, but then due to domesitc responsibilities they're not able to return to work after several years.Quote:
Originally Posted by nice gaijin
But like Mac said, women that have careers are a minority.
No I didn't say the women are to blame, but the problem lays there! The Government is to blame for not doing anything about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by nice gaijin
So, it's the government's job to get women out of the workplace and back into the home, churning out babies like a takoyaki stand?
Just playing devil's advocate here; what kind of action do you think would lead to a recovery of the birth rate?
In some small towns, the local governing agenies sometimes organize matching parties in a way to get singles together and hopefully raise the birthrate. It's often criticized as being a ineffective use of tax revenue, but in the small towns, the declining population hits very close to home, and the people who remain are very conscious of this problem.
Question:
What is the birthrate in Japan in the recent years?
As I know, Hong Kong ranked #1 in world's lowest birthrate with 1.1 or slightly higher few years ago, but don't know what's the latest birthrate.
China (with its one-child policy) has a birthrate around 1.77 and Germany also below 2.0
In sociology calculation, a society (migration factor not included) needs a birthrate of 2.1 to keep its population stable and maintaining its size.
India has a birthrate above 3.5!
another question is:
How come that most modern societies have low birthrates in the recent years around the world?
IMO the factors are the widespread single-living adults or couples who don't want kids, automatisation through robotics and computers.
Overpopulated countries have the potential problem of high unemployment when economy isn't doing well.
But it is sad that so many people of nowadays don't want children of their own but instead have pets(?!)
I think that having an own family with at least one child is a wonderful thing.
Not having the wish of own descendants is like wanting the own family roots die out :(
The government should support women to get a baby, so they should take care that they can get financial support when they don't have a job, and that they can come back to their old working place after 1.5.-2 years! (read the last article below)Quote:
Originally Posted by nice gaijin
They should reward women (families) with more than 2 babies with financial help!
This will make the step for the WORKING women a lot easier IMO!
Japan has a serious problem, and they know it for a long time!! But what do they do about it?
Here is btw an Article from the BCC about the Birth rate in Japan:
Quote:
Japan sounds alarm on birth rate
The Japanese government says urgent policy changes are needed to persuade women to have more children.
Japan currently has one of the lowest birth rates in the world. Discrimination in the workplace and poor government policies have been blamed for deterring many Japanese women from having children.
But the government says that unless the trend is reversed quickly, the shortage of children risks doing damage to the economy.
The decline in Japan's birth rate is so severe they have invented a word for it - 'shoshika', meaning a society without children...
Read the whole article
The Angel plan, and the NEW angel plan:
And than the last part, and this is Japans recent plan on the Birth rate:Quote:
Prior to the revision of the Child Welfare Law, a 10-year agenda, officially named Basic Orientations to Assist Child-Raising and colloquially known as the Angel Plan, was jointly put together in 1995 by the Education, Health and Welfare, Labor, and Construction ministries. Since one of the reasons for the trend toward smaller families is the growing presence of women in the workplace, this plan aims to build an environment that makes it possible for women to feel confident that they can raise children while holding jobs. Among the various measures promoted were the expansion of the capacity of day nurseries, a lengthening of the hours during which day nurseries are open, and a large increase in the number of child-rearing support centers (kosodate shien senta) throughout Japan.
In 1999 this plan was revised to create the New Angel Plan, which covers the 2000 to 2004 period. The new plan expands numerical targets for various types of care facilities, and includes provisions promoting improvements in the corporate work environment.
Source
Plus One Proposal
Quote:
Although many Japanese are legally entitled to take up to a year's Childcare Leave with guaranteed re-employment and financial compensation of 40% of the salary during the leave (10% is paid when the employee returns to work), relatively few take it. There is increasing concern that informal pressure in the work place encourages women to resign after childbirth rather than depend on others to do "her work" while she is on childcare leave and it is particularly difficult for men (less than 1% currently take this leave) to take advantage of this without worrying about their future careers. As part of a new government policy to combat the declining birthrate, the Japanese Government has enacted new legislation that requires local governments and large companies (over 300 employees) to draft concrete measures for attaining the target of 80% of women and 10% of men taking Childcare Leave. This new policy is entitled the Plus One Proposal to End the Low Birthrate.
source
another problem lies in value changes toward lifestyles among the young and
less people want kids regardless of expenditures.
That's what I meant, most younger generations in the modern societies often think selfishly and fun orientated. Many don't want to be responsible for taking care of a family. Althugh it was seen as a modern trend, many criticizers consider this as a threat of human way of life. Maybe it is the counterpart of the Babyboom generation after WW2.Quote:
Originally Posted by mujou
Oops :pQuote:
Originally Posted by CBT1979
I wonder what factor can cause the Babyboom nowadays.Quote:
Originally Posted by CBT1979
We have to face facts.
Nearly all westernised developed nations have birth rate problems.
I hate to sound mean or anything because I'm not, and I wouldnt take it back for all the gold in China, but perhaps equal rights as we know it and a sustainable birthrate arent complimentary.
When women filled out their biological role as reproducers and carriers of the species, we never had a problem.
The only problme now is that the modern concept of freedom and equal rights means that women, and men, seem less interested/capable of having children.
Many people dont want children for their own comfort (i'm not innocent, I'm 21 and I have no interest in them for a while yet) and many of those that do find modern life and attitudes incompatible with the responsibilties and requirements for raising a family.
Its not just simply a case of maternity leave, if it was, Britain would be having a second baby-boom.
Its just society as a whole in general, it doesnt seem to lend itself to the family type of enviroment.
Work used to merely be a means to an end, and the family was the most important acheivement in life.
Now peoples work becomes their life and family is just an after-thought if considored at all, its not a big deal anymore if you have a family anymore, you can have a string of failed marriages and no kids and living single, and it wont dent your reputation and standing, if you have a high paying high respect job.
It could just be modern civilization is incompatible with the heavy needs of species propagation.
We arent like some species that lay eggs and forget, we have this cripplingly long detrimental "childhood", few species has to pamper their offspring for over a decade after birth.
I wouldnt take back progress, but we need to find a way to make having family more vital to people, more important.
I would strongly agree with nurizeko, if not for the overpopulation problems the world over. Not only are there too many people, we can't easily solve it. In no way is it good to be having less babies than jobs, because that causes the downfall of the country if there aren't enough people to do the work. But we have too many people, all of us, it's plain and simple. So what can we do? Having a high birthrate and low deathrate is bad, and having a low birthrate and high deathrate is bad too. One thing is for certain; if we don't cause a dramatic change to fix this, then someone else, or the Earth will. Either way, it has the same end result, so what are we worrying about?
Another problem with the birthrate is:
1. In the wealthier nations with potential parents who could spend much for raising their kids, they have low birthrates, which means: less descendants of wealthy families.
2. In many development countries (including many African, South American, MiddleEast countries and India), the parents are having multiple kids despite having no enough money to bring them to school etc., which means: more descendants of poor families.
Now imagine the scenario when the world has much much more poor people with no work or bad paid jobs, and only a small amount of people enjoy good living standards.
I remind you all that today's 6+ billion people we have on earth, around 70% are living in permanent poverty.
And you know what happens in societies when the big majority is very poor (France in 1789, China in 1949 for instance).
It's ridiculous to discuss this problem as if it was somehow unique to Japan. As nurizeko said, most developed nations have a low fertility rate. Here is some hard data from the US Census Bureau's International Data Base (no link, google for it):
TFR (TOTAL FERTILITY RATE) IN 2005
Belgium: 1.6
France: 1.8
Germany: 1.4
Italy: 1.3
Japan: 1.4
By the way, TFR is defined as the average number of babies born to women during their reproductive years, and a TFR of 2.1 is usually considered the replacement rate. Admittedly, the value for Japan is low but not exceptionally so by a European standard. Please also note that there is no reason for Belgians to be smug about their fertility rates: they're about average in Europe and far from the replacement rate.
I don't understand calling people 'selfish' just because they choose not to have babies. In my opinion, the selfish people are the ones who have children while lacking the emotional and/or monetary wherewithal to care for them properly.
It's easy to say "we need more kids", but caring for a child is an 18-year-long process - which is why a person needs a better reason than some nebulous duty to clan, country, and (let's face it, some people think like this) race - before deciding to have children.
Also, Earth's resources are not unlimited. Any economic structure that depends on more and more people in order to stay healthy is flawed and will be detrimental to everyone in the long run.
I agree with you 100%. The world is full of selfish people, especially in developing countries. Only a minority of richer and better educated people start to understand that one has to be ready emotionally, financially and b committed to have children. The most selfish of all are those (African, Indian, Chinese peasants ?) who have children to work for them (that's children exploitaton with premeditation) and assure their retirement (why not become king and have slaves work for you ?). It's even worse if they use abortion as a way to get boys, who can work harder, as it makes them immoral and even murderers if they kill the baby after birth.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arrowyn